How the weather will change
Within the lifetimes of most residents in Northamptonshire today, climate change in the county will mean:
- warmer, drier summers, potentially causing water shortages and problems with overheating
- milder, wetter winters, potentially affecting agriculture and the spread of infectious diseases
- a higher chance of extreme weather such as storms and floods
The size and speed of the changes depend mainly on how much carbon dioxide is emitted around the world over the next few decades.
By the 2020s, Northamptonshire is forecast to experience up to 1-2 degrees centigrade rise in temperature, a fall of up to 15% in summer precipitation (rain, mist etc), and a rise of up to 15% in winter precipitation (rain, hail, snow etc).
By the 2080s, if emissions grow fairly modestly, Northamptonshire is likely to undergo a 2-3 degree rise in temperature, a 15-30% drop in summer precipitation and a 0-15% rise in winter precipitation. If emissions grow more substantially, there could be a 4-5 degree rise in temperature, a 30-60% drop in summer precipitation and a 15-30% rise in winter precipitation (source: UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2006).
You can view maps of these forecasts below:
Scientists believe that it will be very difficult to cope with global temperature increases of more than about 2 degrees. While the UK might be able to cope better than some poorer countries, temperature rises of 4-5 degrees in only 75 years would be extremely hard to deal with.
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What causes climate change?
Climate change is caused mainly (though not entirely) by increased levels of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere. These gases act like extra glass in a greenhouse, trapping more heat from the sun when it reflects off the earth's surface.
The main sources of greenhouse gases include natural activity such as volcanoes, and human activity, notably the burning of fossil fuels. Human activity is now the major source of greenhouse gases and is leading to steady increases in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These are now leading to significant changes in our climate.
The above information is based on scientific and governmental advice. You can find out more about these reports and the science of climate change by visiting the websites in Related Links below. The Climate Challenge website provides a particularly good introduction.
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Changes in Northamptonshire
Local weather observers say that Northamptonshire, like the rest of the UK, has seen many records broken over the last ten years.
Naturalists have started to notice changes in the county's plants and animals, for example:
- earlier flowering of plants. Bluebells at Coton Manor Gardens are reported to have bloomed two weeks earlier this year (Chronicle and Echo, 23 April 2007);
- record number of migrant moths recorded at Pitsford Water in 2006, thought to reflect warmer night-time temperatures and winds (Chronicle and Echo, 19 October 2006);
- changes in insect and bird species recorded at Pitsford Water (Chronicle and Echo, 15 March 2007).
Although these changes do not in themselves "prove" that long-term global change is happening, they are consistent with scientific predictions.
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